Cobalt demand to outpace supply by early 2030s, says Cobalt Institute

Published: 2025-05-14 18:25 Author: Bruno Venditti

Source: MINING.COM (Original Article)

AI Analysis & Insights

Cobalt Market Faces Potential Deficit by 2030s, Warns Industry Report

Summary: A new report by the Cobalt Institute predicts that global cobalt demand will outstrip supply by the early 2030s, driven by the booming electric vehicle (EV) sector. While demand grows at a 7% CAGR, supply remains concentrated in the DRC, and market oversupply has led to price drops in 2024 despite recent recovery efforts.

Introduction

A recent report from the Cobalt Institute highlights a looming imbalance in the global cobalt market. With demand projected to grow significantly faster than supply over the next decade, the current surplus could transform into a deficit by the early 2030s, raising concerns about resource availability for critical industries like electric vehicles (EVs).

Rising Demand Driven by EVs

The report forecasts cobalt demand to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7%, reaching 400,000 metric tonnes by the early 2030s from 222,000 tonnes in 2024. The primary driver is the rapid expansion of the EV market, which accounted for 43% of cobalt consumption in 2024 and is expected to rise to 57% by 2030. Battery applications, predominantly for EVs, represented 76% of total demand and 94% of demand growth this year. Other sectors, such as portable electronics and industrial applications, are also contributing, with AI-driven devices and defense spending boosting cobalt use in larger batteries and superalloys.

Supply Challenges and Market Dynamics

On the supply side, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continues to dominate, producing 76% of global mined cobalt in 2024. Indonesia, with a 12% share, is expected to nearly double its output to 22% by 2030, while the DRC's share may slightly decline to 65%. Despite growing demand, cobalt prices hit a nine-year low earlier this year due to oversupply, with significant drops in cobalt hydroxide and metal prices. In response, the DRC imposed a four-month export ban, which has since led to a 60% price rebound to $16 per pound. However, with the ban nearing its end, the government is considering stricter export controls to stabilize the market.

Opinion and Analysis

The cobalt market's trajectory raises critical questions about sustainability and geopolitical risks. As EVs become central to the global energy transition—a hot topic amid climate change discussions—reliance on the DRC for supply poses challenges due to political instability and ethical concerns over mining practices. Could diversification of supply sources, such as Indonesia's rising output, mitigate these risks? Additionally, while price recovery is a short-term win, long-term deficits could drive costs higher, potentially slowing EV adoption. Industry stakeholders must prioritize recycling initiatives and alternative battery chemistries to reduce cobalt dependency, especially as AI and defense sectors add pressure on demand.

Conclusion:

The cobalt market stands at a crossroads, with demand poised to exceed supply by the early 2030s. While the EV boom offers immense opportunities, it also underscores the urgency of addressing supply chain vulnerabilities and market imbalances. Strategic interventions, from diversified sourcing to innovation in battery technology, will be crucial to ensure a stable transition to a greener future.

行业报告警告：2030年代初钴市场或将面临短缺

摘要: 钴研究所的一份新报告预测，到2030年代初，全球钴需求将超过供应，主要受到电动汽车（EV）行业快速增长的推动。尽管需求以7%的年均复合增长率上升，但供应仍集中在刚果民主共和国（DRC），2024年市场过剩导致价格下跌，尽管近期有所回升。

引言

钴研究所（Cobalt Institute）的最新报告指出，全球钴市场即将面临失衡。随着未来十年需求增长明显快于供应，当前的市场过剩可能在2030年代初转为短缺，这对电动汽车（EV）等关键行业的资源可用性提出了担忧。

电动汽车推动需求增长

报告预测，钴需求将以7%的年均复合增长率（CAGR）增长，从2024年的22.2万吨增加到2030年代初的40万吨。主要推动力是电动汽车市场的快速扩张，2024年电动汽车占钴消耗量的43%，预计到2030年将上升至57%。电池应用（主要是电动汽车）占今年总需求的76%，并贡献了94%的需求增长。其他领域，如便携式电子产品和工业应用也有所贡献，人工智能设备和国防支出的增加推动了更大电池和超级合金对钴的需求。

供应挑战与市场动态

在供应方面，刚果民主共和国（DRC）继续占据主导地位，2024年生产了全球76%的开采钴。印尼目前占市场份额的12%，预计到2030年将接近翻倍至22%，而刚果民主共和国的份额可能略降至65%。尽管需求不断增长，但由于供应过剩，钴价格在今年早些时候跌至九年低点，钴氢氧化物和金属价格分别下跌15%和22%。作为回应，刚果民主共和国实施了为期四个月的出口禁令，此后价格回升60%，达到每磅16美元。然而，随着禁令即将结束，政府正在考虑更严格的出口管制以稳定市场。

观点与分析

钴市场的走向引发了关于可持续性和地缘政治风险的重要问题。随着电动汽车成为全球能源转型的核心——这是气候变化讨论中的热门话题——对刚果民主共和国供应的依赖带来了挑战，因为该地区政治不稳定且采矿实践存在伦理问题。印尼产量的增加能否缓解这些风险？此外，尽管价格回升是短期利好，但长期短缺可能推高成本，从而减缓电动汽车的普及。行业利益相关者必须优先考虑回收计划和替代电池化学技术，以减少对钴的依赖，尤其是在人工智能和国防领域进一步加剧需求压力的情况下。

结论:

钴市场正处于十字路口，需求预计将在2030年代初超过供应。虽然电动汽车热潮带来了巨大机遇，但也凸显了解决供应链脆弱性和市场失衡的紧迫性。从多元化供应来源到电池技术创新，战略干预措施对于确保向更绿色未来的平稳过渡至关重要。