Gold price falls to two-week low on signs of trade tensions easing

Published: 2025-05-01 15:06 Author: Jackson Chen

Source: MINING.COM (Original Article)

AI Analysis & Insights

Gold Prices Drop to Two-Week Low as Trade Tensions Ease

Summary: Gold prices fell to a two-week low due to signs of easing global trade tensions, reducing demand for the safe-haven metal, though long-term bullish sentiment persists.

Introduction

Gold prices tumbled to their lowest level in two weeks on Thursday, driven by indications that trade tensions sparked by US President Donald Trump may be subsiding. This has dampened demand for gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty.

Key Developments

Price Decline: Spot gold dropped 2.0% to $3,221.94 per ounce, while three-month gold futures fell 2.7% to $3,230.10 per ounce in New York, marking the lowest since April 14.
Trade Optimism: The decline follows hints from the Trump administration of impending trade deals with countries like India, Japan, South Korea, and potentially China, as confirmed by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and President Trump himself.
Market Sentiment: According to Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, a 'risk-on' trade sentiment has emerged, prompting profit-taking in gold as investors shift away from safe-haven assets.

Bullish Outlook Despite Short-Term Losses

Despite the recent pullback from a high of $3,500 per ounce last week, gold remains a top-performing asset in 2025 with a 23% gain year-to-date. Analysts maintain a bullish stance: - Long-Term Forecasts: A Reuters poll predicts gold prices will average above $3,000 annually, fueled by ongoing trade frictions and a shift away from the US dollar. JPMorgan projects prices to hit $3,675 in Q4 and reach $4,000 by mid-2026. - Economic Concerns: Recent data showing a contraction in the US economy in Q1 2025, coupled with expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts to avert a recession, continues to support gold’s appeal. - Expert Insight: Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank noted that while short-term corrections are driven by improved market sentiment, the structural factors underpinning gold’s strength remain intact.

Editorial Analysis

While the easing of trade tensions appears to be a positive development for global markets, the optimism may be premature. Trump’s trade policies have historically been unpredictable, and any setbacks in negotiations could quickly reverse market sentiment, driving investors back to gold. Furthermore, the US economic contraction and potential recession risks highlighted in recent data suggest that gold’s safe-haven status should not be underestimated, even amidst temporary price dips. The question remains whether the current 'risk-on' sentiment is sustainable or merely a fleeting reaction to unconfirmed trade deal prospects.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, while gold prices have declined due to signs of easing trade tensions, the metal’s long-term outlook remains robust, supported by economic uncertainties and bullish forecasts. Investors should remain cautious, as geopolitical and economic volatility could swiftly reignite demand for gold as a safe haven.

黄金价格跌至两周低点，贸易紧张局势缓解迹象显现

摘要: 由于全球贸易紧张局势缓解的迹象，黄金价格跌至两周低点，避险需求减少，但长期看涨情绪依然存在。

引言

周四，黄金价格跌至两周低点，原因是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普引发的贸易紧张局势可能正在缓解，这削弱了市场对黄金这一避险资产的需求。

主要动态

价格下跌：现货黄金价格下跌2.0%，至每盎司3,221.94美元，而纽约三个月期黄金期货价格下跌2.7%，至每盎司3,230.10美元，创下自4月14日以来的最低水平。
贸易乐观情绪：价格下跌与特朗普政府暗示即将与印度、日本、韩国达成贸易协议，甚至可能与中国达成协议的表态有关。美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔和特朗普总统本人都证实了这一进展。
市场情绪：RJO Futures高级市场策略师鲍勃·哈伯科恩表示，市场出现了“风险偏好”情绪，导致投资者在黄金避险资产上获利了结。

短期亏损下的看涨前景

尽管黄金价格从上周每盎司3,500美元的高点大幅回落，但2025年黄金仍是表现最佳的资产之一，年内涨幅达23%。分析师仍对黄金持看涨态度： - 长期预测：《路透社》最新季度调查预测，黄金价格将首次年均超过3,000美元，受到贸易摩擦和美元避险情绪减弱的支撑。摩根大通预计第四季度均价将达3,675美元，并在明年中期达到4,000美元。 - 经济担忧：近期数据显示，2025年第一季度美国经济出现自2022年以来的首次萎缩，市场预期美联储今年将降息四次以避免衰退，这为黄金提供了支撑。 - 专家观点：盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管奥勒·汉森指出，尽管短期调整受市场情绪改善驱动，但支撑黄金走强的结构性因素依然稳固。

编辑分析

虽然贸易紧张局势的缓解似乎对全球市场是一个积极信号，但这种乐观情绪可能为时过早。特朗普的贸易政策历来不可预测，谈判中的任何挫折都可能迅速扭转市场情绪，促使投资者重新转向黄金。此外，近期数据凸显的美国经济萎缩和潜在衰退风险表明，即使价格短期下跌，黄金的避险地位也不应被低估。当前“风险偏好”情绪是否可持续，还是仅仅是对未经证实贸易协议前景的短暂反应，仍是一个值得关注的问题。

结论:

总之，尽管黄金价格因贸易紧张局势缓解迹象而下跌，但由于经济不确定性和看涨预测，其长期前景依然强劲。投资者应保持谨慎，因为地缘政治和经济波动可能迅速重新点燃对黄金作为避险资产的需求。