Copper prices rebound after sharp drop as US signals trade progress

Published: 2025-05-01 16:12 Author: Bruno Venditti

Source: MINING.COM (Original Article)

AI Analysis & Insights

Copper Prices Rebound Amid US Trade Optimism and Supply Concerns

Summary: Copper prices recover after a sharp drop, driven by positive US-China trade signals and supply disruptions in Peru, despite forecasts of a growing global surplus.

Copper Prices Bounce Back

Copper prices staged a recovery on Thursday after experiencing their largest single-day decline in nearly a month. On the COMEX, July delivery copper surged 1.6% to $4.683 per pound ($10,302 per tonne), following a 5% plunge the previous day. Similarly, in London, three-month copper futures climbed above $9,200 per tonne, offsetting part of Wednesday’s 3% loss.

US Trade Progress Sparks Optimism

The rebound was fueled by renewed optimism surrounding US-China trade negotiations. President Donald Trump expressed confidence in reaching an agreement, albeit on US terms, while Trade Representative Jamieson Greer hinted at an imminent announcement of initial trade deals. This comes after a tumultuous April, during which copper prices dropped 6%—their worst monthly performance since mid-2022—amid fears of a global trade war. Additionally, the US is contemplating tariffs on copper imports, adding to market uncertainty.

Supply Disruptions and Surplus Forecasts

On the supply side, disruptions in Peru, the world’s third-largest copper producer, have reignited concerns. Community protests temporarily halted operations at Antamina (owned by BHP and Glencore) and disrupted logistics at Las Bambas (operated by China’s MMG), though issues at Antamina have since been resolved. Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) revised its 2025 global surplus forecast to 289,000 tonnes, more than doubling last year’s surplus of 138,000 tonnes and exceeding its prior estimate of 194,000 tonnes. The surplus is expected to persist into 2026 at 209,000 tonnes, marking three consecutive years of oversupply.

Analysis and Perspective

While the short-term recovery in copper prices reflects positive trade signals, the market remains volatile due to structural oversupply and geopolitical risks. The projected surplus raises questions about the sustainability of price gains, especially if demand does not pick up significantly. Moreover, potential US tariffs could further distort global trade flows, disproportionately affecting major exporters like Chile and Peru. Investors should remain cautious, as the interplay between trade policies and supply dynamics could lead to further price swings.

Conclusion:

Copper prices have rebounded on the back of US trade optimism and supply concerns in Peru, but the outlook remains uncertain due to a forecasted global surplus and potential trade barriers. Market participants must navigate a complex landscape of short-term gains and long-term risks.

铜价在美中贸易乐观信号及供应担忧中反弹

摘要: 铜价在大幅下跌后回升，受到美中贸易谈判积极信号及秘鲁供应中断的推动，尽管全球供应过剩预测增加。

铜价回升

周四，铜价在经历近一个月来最大的单日跌幅后出现反弹。在COMEX市场上，7月交割的铜价上涨1.6%，至每磅4.683美元（每吨10,302美元），此前一天曾下跌5%。在伦敦，三个月期铜期货价格突破每吨9,200美元，部分弥补了周三3%的跌幅。

美中贸易进展提振信心

此次反弹受到美中贸易谈判乐观情绪的推动。美国总统特朗普表示，与中国达成协议的“可能性很大”，但强调必须符合美国条件。贸易代表贾米森·格里尔补充称，美国即将宣布首批贸易协议。这是在4月份铜价下跌6%——自2022年中期以来最差月度表现——之后的市场反应，当时市场担忧全球贸易战。此外，美国正在考虑对铜进口征收关税，进一步加剧市场不确定性。

供应中断与过剩预测

在供应方面，世界第三大铜生产国秘鲁的供应中断再次引发担忧。社区抗议活动暂时中断了安塔米纳矿（由必和必拓和嘉能可拥有）的运营，并影响了中国五矿旗下拉斯班巴斯矿的物流，尽管安塔米纳的问题已得到解决。与此同时，国际铜研究小组（ICSG）将其2025年全球铜过剩预测上调至28.9万吨，较去年的13.8万吨翻倍，并高于之前的19.4万吨预测。预计2026年过剩量将维持在20.9万吨，连续三年出现供应过剩。

分析与观点

尽管短期内铜价因贸易乐观情绪而回升，但市场仍因结构性供应过剩和地缘政治风险而波动。预测的过剩量令人质疑价格上涨的可持续性，尤其是在需求未显著增加的情况下。此外，美国可能的关税政策可能进一步扭曲全球贸易流动，对智利和秘鲁等主要出口国造成不对称影响。投资者应保持谨慎，贸易政策与供应动态的相互作用可能导致进一步的价格波动。

结论:

铜价在美中贸易乐观情绪和秘鲁供应担忧的推动下反弹，但由于全球供应过剩预测和潜在贸易壁垒，前景仍不明朗。市场参与者需要在短期收益和长期风险的复杂环境中谨慎行事。