ioneer ‘confident’ in finding Rhyolite Ridge investor, at higher valuation: FT

Published: 2025-04-29 16:08 Author: Jackson Chen

Source: MINING.COM (Original Article)

AI Analysis & Insights

Ioneer Confident in Securing Rhyolite Ridge Investor at Higher Valuation

Summary: Australian miner Ioneer remains optimistic about finding a new investor for its Rhyolite Ridge lithium project in Nevada, despite Sibanye-Stillwater's withdrawal, and targets a higher valuation than previously estimated.

Introduction

Ioneer Ltd. (ASX: INR), the owner of the Rhyolite Ridge lithium project in Nevada, has expressed strong confidence in securing a new investor in the near term, even after South African miner Sibanye-Stillwater pulled out of a $490 million deal earlier this year. As reported by the Financial Times, the company is now aiming for a higher valuation than the $1.3 billion net present value estimated in 2020.

Project Overview and Challenges

Located approximately 362 km north of Las Vegas, Rhyolite Ridge is one of the largest lithium resources in the US and one of only two advanced-stage lithium projects in the country. A 2020 feasibility study projected a 26-year mine life with an annual production of 22,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate, enough to power around 370,000 electric vehicles yearly. However, the initial capital cost is steep at $785 million, and the lithium market has been volatile, with prices dropping significantly since their peak in late 2022.

Sibanye-Stillwater’s exit in February, citing unmet investment thresholds amid weak lithium prices and its own financial struggles, was a setback. Yet, Ioneer’s managing director Bernard Rowe remains optimistic, telling the Financial Times that the company aims to sell a 40% stake to one or two investors soon.

Higher Valuation and Resource Growth

Ioneer is now seeking a valuation exceeding the 2020 estimate, bolstered by a fully permitted project and a 45% increase in resources to 510 million tonnes, as per a February 2025 update. This translates to nearly 4 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent, with over 80% in high-confidence categories. Additionally, the US government has approved a nearly $1 billion loan to fund a processing facility, contingent on securing an equity partner.

Lithium analyst Federico Gay from Benchmark noted that while construction costs for Rhyolite Ridge are high, the mine could be competitive once operational compared to other lithium projects globally.

Analysis and Perspective

While Ioneer’s confidence is commendable, the volatile lithium market and high upfront costs pose significant risks. The sharp decline in lithium prices since 2022 may deter potential investors, especially those cautious after Sibanye’s withdrawal. Moreover, the dependency on securing an equity partner to unlock the US government loan adds another layer of uncertainty. However, the project’s strategic importance to the US battery metals supply chain and the substantial resource growth could attract interest from investors betting on a long-term lithium demand surge driven by electric vehicle adoption.

Conclusion:

Ioneer’s optimism about finding a new investor for Rhyolite Ridge at a higher valuation reflects the project’s potential and strategic value. Nevertheless, market volatility and high capital costs remain hurdles that could challenge this ambition. If successful, Rhyolite Ridge could play a pivotal role in bolstering the US lithium supply, but the path to securing investment remains uncertain.

Ioneer 对以更高估值找到 Rhyolite Ridge 投资者充满信心

摘要: 澳大利亚矿业公司 Ioneer 对其内华达州 Rhyolite Ridge 锂矿项目寻找新投资者充满信心，尽管 Sibanye-Stillwater 早前退出，且公司目标估值高于之前的估算。

引言

Ioneer Ltd. (ASX: INR)，内华达州 Rhyolite Ridge 锂矿项目的所有者，表达了对近期内找到新投资者的强烈信心，尽管南非矿业公司 Sibanye-Stillwater 今年早些时候退出了价值 4.9 亿美元的交易。据《金融时报》报道，公司目前的目标估值高于 2020 年估算的 13 亿美元净现值。

项目概况与挑战

Rhyolite Ridge 位于拉斯维加斯以北约 362 公里处，是美国最大的锂资源之一，也是该国仅有的两个处于高级阶段的锂项目之一。2020 年的可行性研究预测该矿寿命为 26 年，年产锂碳酸盐 2.2 万吨，足以每年为约 37 万辆电动车提供动力。然而，初始资本成本高达 7.85 亿美元，且锂市场波动剧烈，自 2022 年末达到峰值后价格大幅下跌。

Sibanye-Stillwater 在今年 2 月以锂价疲软及自身财务困境为由退出，称投资未达到预期回报率门槛，这对项目是一个挫折。然而，Ioneer 董事总经理 Bernard Rowe 仍保持乐观，他告诉《金融时报》，公司计划很快将 40% 的股份出售给一到两位投资者。

更高估值与资源增长

Ioneer 目前寻求的估值超过 2020 年的估算，理由是项目已完全获得许可，且资源量在 2025 年 2 月的更新中增加了 45%，达到 5.1 亿吨，相当于近 400 万吨锂碳酸盐当量，其中超过 80% 属于高信度类别。此外，美国政府已批准近 10 亿美元的贷款用于建设加工设施，但前提是公司需找到股权合作伙伴。

Benchmark 的锂分析师 Federico Gay 指出，尽管 Rhyolite Ridge 的建设成本高昂，但一旦投入运营，其与其他全球锂矿项目相比具有竞争力。

分析与观点

虽然 Ioneer 的信心值得称道，但锂市场的波动性和高昂的前期成本构成了重大风险。自 2022 年以来锂价格的急剧下跌可能使潜在投资者望而却步，尤其是那些在 Sibanye 退出后变得谨慎的投资者。此外，获得美国政府贷款的条件是确保股权合作伙伴，这增加了另一层不确定性。然而，该项目对美国电池金属供应链的战略重要性以及资源量的显著增长，可能吸引那些押注电动车需求长期激增的投资者。

结论:

Ioneer 对以更高估值找到 Rhyolite Ridge 项目新投资者的乐观态度反映了该项目的潜力与战略价值。然而，市场波动和高资本成本仍是可能阻碍这一目标的障碍。如果成功，Rhyolite Ridge 或将在增强美国锂供应中发挥关键作用，但获得投资的道路仍充满不确定性。