Introduction
Centerra Gold (TSX: CG), a prominent Canadian gold miner, has acquired a 9.9% stake in Thesis Gold (TSXV: TAU) for C$24.2 million by purchasing approximately 23.5 million shares at C$1.03 each. This strategic investment, announced on Tuesday, reflects Centerra’s confidence in the growth potential of Thesis’ flagship Lawyers-Ranch project in north-central British Columbia, located near Centerra’s own Kemess gold-copper project.
Details of the Acquisition and Project Potential
The share purchase price represents a 10% premium to the five-day volume-weighted average price of Thesis Gold on the TSX Venture Exchange. Following the announcement, Thesis shares traded at C$0.95 by midday ET, down 1.0%, though they touched a 52-week high of C$1.04 earlier in the session. The Lawyers-Ranch project spans 495 square kilometers in the Toodoggone mining district, a region with geological similarities to the prolific Golden Triangle. The project, which includes a former underground mine that produced over 173,000 oz. of gold and 3.6 million oz. of silver between 1989-1992, is currently under a pre-feasibility study (PFS) following a promising preliminary economic assessment (PEA) released in October 2024.
The PEA projects a 14-year mine life with annual gold-equivalent production of 215,000 oz., a post-tax net present value (NPV) of C$1.3 billion (at a 5% discount rate), and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 35.2%. Initial capital costs are estimated at C$598 million. Thesis is also advancing environmental assessments and conducting summer exploration to expand the resource base.
Synergy and Strategic Rationale
Centerra’s interest in Thesis is driven by the proximity of Lawyers-Ranch to its Kemess project, located just 45 km to the south. Kemess, acquired through the 2017 takeover of AuRico Metals, is a former copper-gold mine with a historical output of 3 million oz. of gold and 800 million lb. of copper. Centerra CEO Paul Tomory emphasized the potential for synergies, including the use of existing infrastructure to unlock regional value. Thesis CEO Ewan Webster welcomed the investment as a strong endorsement of the project’s potential.
Analysis and Perspective
While the acquisition signals Centerra’s intent to expand its footprint in a promising mining district, the deal raises questions about execution risks. The Lawyers-Ranch project, though backed by a robust PEA, is still in the PFS stage, and challenges such as environmental permitting and capital funding could delay or derail progress. Additionally, the C$598 million initial capex is substantial for a junior miner like Thesis, and Centerra’s involvement—currently limited to a minority stake—may need to deepen to ensure project viability. On the positive side, the proximity to Kemess could indeed yield cost-saving synergies, potentially transforming the region into a significant gold-copper hub. However, investors should remain cautious until more definitive PFS results and partnership details emerge.