Triple Flag's Strategic Acquisition
Triple Flag Precious Metals (TSX: TFPM, NYSE: TFPM) announced on Tuesday a major acquisition deal to purchase Orogen Royalties Inc. (TSX-V: OGN, OTCQX: OGNRF) for approximately C$421 million ($305 million). The centerpiece of the transaction is a 1.0% net smelter return (NSR) royalty on the Expanded Silicon gold project in Nevada, a flagship asset fully owned by AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU). Following the announcement, Orogen’s shares surged 28% in Toronto, boosting its market capitalization to C$373 million ($270 million).
The Expanded Silicon Project: A Gold Powerhouse
Located in Nevada’s Beatty District, the Expanded Silicon project encompasses the Merlin and Silicon deposits across a 74 km² area. The royalty held by Orogen, now transferring to Triple Flag, has no caps or buydown provisions, making it a highly valuable asset. As of December 31, 2024, the Merlin deposit boasts an inferred resource of 355 million tonnes at 1.06 g/t gold (12.1 million ounces), while the Silicon deposit holds 121 million tonnes at 0.87 g/t in the indicated category and 36 million tonnes at 0.70 g/t inferred. AngloGold Ashanti, which began drilling in 2018, has described the project as the largest new gold discovery in the U.S. in over a decade, with potential for both heap leach and milling operations.
Deal Structure and Spinoff
As part of the transaction, Orogen’s other mineral interests will be spun off into a new entity, Orogen Spinco, led by current CEO Paddy Nicol. Triple Flag will invest C$10 million for an 11% stake in Spinco upon its public debut. Additionally, the two companies plan to form a generative exploration alliance in the western U.S., targeting gold and silver deposits similar to Expanded Silicon, with an initial budget of $435,000. The deal is expected to close in Q3 2025, pending customary approvals.
Analysis: A Bold Move with Risks
This acquisition positions Triple Flag to capitalize on one of Nevada’s most promising gold projects, aligning with the growing demand for precious metals amid economic uncertainty. The uncapped NSR royalty on Expanded Silicon could yield substantial long-term returns if AngloGold Ashanti accelerates development. However, the deal’s success hinges on the project’s timeline and production outcomes, which remain uncertain given the inferred nature of much of the resource. Additionally, while the spinoff of Orogen Spinco diversifies risk, Triple Flag’s C$10 million investment in an unproven entity raises questions about capital allocation. Investors should also monitor geopolitical and regulatory risks in Nevada’s mining sector, which could impact project advancement.